Više kamatne stope, održane duže vreme, mogu da smanje interesovanje za Bitcoin – Analize tržišta

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1235 ET - Broken down cease-fire talks in the war in Iran appears to have investors re-evaluating their risk appetite this week — which may be a pressure point for bitcoin and other cryptocurrency assets. "Bitcoin is facing additional pressure as rising Treasury yields and inflation data tighten global liquidity conditions," says Fiona Cincotta of FOREX.com in a note. If higher energy prices lead to resurgent inflation, then money flow is likely to stay out of cryptocurrency and in safer assets, says Cincotta. But major cryptocurrencies are higher, this even amid the potential of a higher-inflation environment. Bitcoin is up 1% to nearly $72,100, ethereum rises 0.3% to over $2,220, and solana is up 0.5% to $83.11. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1228 ET - Bitcoin wallet activity is at its quietest point since 2019, according to research from Cex.io. Buyers appear to accumulating BTC in lieu of selling, but the quiet period may be only brief. "Some of the quietest weeks on record have preceded the loudest moves, suggesting that the market is not healing, just holding its breath," says the firm. ETF inflows were strong though, at $786 million in bitcoin. The firm says its unclear if prices are being supported by these inflows, or if its just a brief respite before more selling, or as Cex.io puts it "participation has collapsed and the price is floating on thin air." Bitcoin is up 0.9% to just over $72,000, according to LSEG data. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1220 ET - Desjardins Group, among the most dovish forecasters regarding Canada's rate outlook, says the Bank of Canada could start tightening monetary policy earlier than anticipated due to higher crude-oil prices. Desjardins has revised its oil-price outlook, and now anticipates WTI averaging $100 a barrel through May before declining by the end of 3Q. Under this scenario, the firm says headline inflation in Canada would be pushed higher, while growth in core prices would remain contained amid excess spare capacity and a soft labor market. Desjardins' revised oil-price outlook "would tend to suggest a slightly earlier tightening in monetary policy in 2027 than previously assumed but not a material shift in the policy path at this time," the firm says, in a note co-authored by chief economist Jimmy Jean. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

1143 ET - Bitcoin trade slightly higher as the U.S. blockade of vessels moving on the Strait of Hormuz gets underway. The 0.4% uptick according to data from LSEG comes after bitcoin had a volatile weekend on headlines coming out of the Middle East. Bitcoin is trading around $71,160. If it drops under the $70,000 mark, it may slide further to a support level of $65,000, says Nic Puckrin of Coin Bureau. But more optimistically, bitcoin may be showing market resilience in the face of the new uncertainty, says Puckrin in a note, citing a report by Binance. "Weekend crypto trading now predicts Monday's Wall Street moves with an 89% accuracy," he says. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)Magdalena Polan is female. "Hungary Faces Big Challenges Despite Orban Ouster — Market Talk," at 1523 GMT, used the incorrect pronoun in the last sentence.

1123 ET - Despite a market-friendly outcome to the general election, Hungary still has a mountain to climb, says Magdalena Polan at PGIM. The top priority for the new government will be unlocking EU funds of roughly 14 billion euros. But given significant legislative hurdles, Peter Magyar's Tisza party might struggle to meet the deadlines to receive most of these funds. Institutional resistance could also hold the party back amid lingering influence from the previous administration, Polan says. Meanwhile, fiscal challenges are steep, with a credible economic plan needed to stabilize Hungary's credit rating. Dealing with corruption concerns will also be essential as the country seeks a closer relationship with the EU. "Addressing this is just as important for market sentiment as the hard economic numbers," she says. (don.forbes@wsj.com) Corrections & Amplifications

This was corrected at 1138 ET. Magdalena Polan is female. The original version used the incorrect pronoun in the last sentence.

1109 ET - There is scope for cautious optimism about Hungary's economic outlook after Peter Magyar's landslide win, but there remain risks surrounding the implementation of reforms, Oxford Economics economist Mateusz Urban says in a note. The result is modestly growth-supportive, thanks to improved prospects for unlocking European Union funds, a more diversified investment inflow and more predictable energy-policy framework, he says. "But timing and absorption capacity remain key uncertainties, limiting the near-term growth impulse." The inexperience of many Tisza politicians could slow reforms. Magyar's pledges to cut taxes are also unlikely to be fulfilled due to Hungary's public finances, Urban says. The rally in Hungarian markets might not last beyond the near term, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

1100 ET - The European Central Bank will likely raise its key interest rate by a quarter point in both June and September, economists at Societe Generale say in a note. They expect headline inflation to rise to 3.5% in May from 2.5% in March, and stay at that level until April next year. Core inflation could rise from 2.3% last month to around 2.8% in March next year, they say. "We believe the ECB has at least 50 basis points of room to act before entering a restrictive policy stance, suggesting that it could apply a measured tightening while gaining more information about the impact on the real economy and core inflation," they say. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

1057 ET - Interest-rate hikes hit the hardest after big price shocks, according to a European Central Bank blog post. When inflation is high, prices and wages adjust more flexibly, making it easier to bring inflation down without large overall output losses, say economists from the ECB and central banks of Germany, Austria and Latvia. It suggests the loss of output from tighter monetary policy is smaller relative to interest-rate hikes during times of lower inflation. In the tightening cycle of 2022-23, ECB rate rises achieved rapid disinflation with limited output costs, they say.(edward.frankl@wsj.com)

1055 ET - The cost of insuring Hungarian debt against default falls after Viktor Orban's election defeat. The victory for the opposition Tisza party paves the way for closer ties between the European Union and Hungary. It also unlocks the potential for the release of 17 billion euros ($19.93 billion) in EU funds that have been frozen due to democratic backsliding. Hungary's five-year credit default swap spreads fall by 8 basis points to a one-month low of 100bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

1053 ET - The failure of negotiations between Washington and Tehran and risks of a resumption of the conflict "may make it difficult for the market to retain any de-escalatory hopes," Aberdeen's Paul Diggle says in a note. The breakdown of talks prolongs the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while the cease-fire is "obviously extremely fragile." Markets may therefore be inclined toward "more extreme pricing," he says. The key things to watch over the coming days include whether the cease-fire holds and whether economic and diplomatic pressure bring the U.S. and Iran back to the negotiating table, Diggle says. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

1053 ET - Poland's current account balance for February points to rising competition from China in European markets, ING's Leszek Kasek says in a note. A deficit of 990 million euros compares with a surplus of 1.05 billion euros in January. Imports of capital goods jumped, particularly computers and passenger cars, which mainly came from China. "We see a rising role of goods 'Made in China' in Poland and European foreign trade flows," Kasek says. Poland is now a key logistics hub for Asian imports. Meanwhile China has largely replaced Polish battery exports to Germany. It has also over taken the country as the leading EU supplier of electric buses. The response of Polish companies to rising Chinese competition will be in sharp focus ahead, Kasek says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260413005649:0/